Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

TriMas Corporation (TRS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.00 - $11.65$9.77
Multi-Stage$13.38 - $14.72$14.04
Blended Fair Value$11.90
Current Price$38.64
Upside-69.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.160.170.040.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.04%-2.62%295.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.62%0.60%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.825.513.31
Cash Retained (M)37.4837.4837.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.82-5.51-3.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.6631.9734.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.9940.9940.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.940.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.00$9.77$11.65
Upside / Downside-79.30%-74.72%-69.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.0843.6443.2042.7742.3441.9243.18
Payout Ratio14.97%29.98%44.98%59.99%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.6013.0819.4325.6631.7537.7339.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.54%8.54%8.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.9312.0512.17
Year 2 PV (M)16.1716.5016.83
Year 3 PV (M)19.4620.0720.68
Year 4 PV (M)21.9722.8823.82
Year 5 PV (M)23.8125.0526.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)455.12478.82503.49
Equity Value (M)548.46575.36603.34
Shares Outstanding (M)40.9940.9940.99
Fair Value$13.38$14.04$14.72
Upside / Downside-65.37%-63.68%-61.91%

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