Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co., Ltd. (000833.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100.63 - $123.39$115.64
Multi-Stage$21.05 - $23.06$22.04
Blended Fair Value$68.84
Current Price$13.87
Upside396.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.49%15.81%0.110.110.180.070.010.040.060.160.040.01
YoY Growth--2.49%-39.29%154.31%458.22%-66.15%-37.91%-63.50%279.14%199.51%-43.59%
Dividend Yield--0.94%2.24%2.97%1.17%0.33%0.82%1.22%3.14%0.60%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)497.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)370.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.5362.2137.32
Cash Retained (M)370.79370.79370.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.53-62.21-37.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.26308.58333.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)802.07802.07802.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$100.63$115.64$123.39
Upside / Downside625.49%733.73%789.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)497.65529.99564.44601.13640.21681.82702.27
Payout Ratio25.49%38.39%51.30%64.20%77.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.86203.48289.53385.91493.59613.64649.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)190.13191.93193.73
Year 2 PV (M)252.77257.58262.44
Year 3 PV (M)314.79323.83333.04
Year 4 PV (M)376.20390.67405.55
Year 5 PV (M)437.00458.10480.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,316.1416,055.9116,824.00
Equity Value (M)16,887.0217,678.0318,498.78
Shares Outstanding (M)802.07802.07802.07
Fair Value$21.05$22.04$23.06
Upside / Downside51.80%58.91%66.29%

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