Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Allmed Medical Products Co., Ltd (002950.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.21 - $31.82$20.56
Multi-Stage$15.67 - $17.20$16.42
Blended Fair Value$18.49
Current Price$9.45
Upside95.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.22%-4.64%0.070.110.260.930.430.170.000.300.480.16
YoY Growth---32.37%-60.21%-71.60%116.57%149.43%0.00%-100.00%-36.98%199.87%38.71%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.34%2.15%7.26%2.39%0.72%0.00%2.83%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)452.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)398.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.4656.5433.92
Cash Retained (M)398.18398.18398.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.46-56.54-33.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)307.72341.64364.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.77620.77620.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.89%3.89%4.89%
Fair Value$14.21$20.56$31.82
Upside / Downside50.33%117.54%236.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)452.32469.91488.19507.17526.90547.39563.82
Payout Ratio11.97%27.57%43.18%58.79%74.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.14129.58210.80298.15391.98492.65521.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.89%3.89%4.89%
Year 1 PV (M)119.81120.97122.14
Year 2 PV (M)180.22183.74187.30
Year 3 PV (M)235.69242.62249.70
Year 4 PV (M)286.50297.80309.43
Year 5 PV (M)332.94349.43366.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,572.718,997.489,438.93
Equity Value (M)9,727.8610,192.0610,674.08
Shares Outstanding (M)620.77620.77620.77
Fair Value$15.67$16.42$17.20
Upside / Downside65.83%73.74%81.96%

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