Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Avicopter Plc (600038.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.58 - $144.86$87.28
Multi-Stage$17.37 - $18.99$18.17
Blended Fair Value$52.72
Current Price$36.24
Upside45.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.99%7.59%0.310.210.380.320.260.220.210.220.220.15
YoY Growth--45.71%-44.82%20.65%24.36%16.21%6.29%-6.01%-0.64%50.44%-0.75%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.52%0.91%0.62%0.51%0.53%0.43%0.46%0.44%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)571.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.2671.4242.85
Cash Retained (M)328.90328.90328.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.26-71.42-42.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)214.63257.48286.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)784.36784.36784.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.58$87.28$144.86
Upside / Downside-4.57%140.84%299.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)571.32608.46648.01690.13734.98782.76806.24
Payout Ratio42.43%51.95%61.46%70.97%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.42316.07398.26489.80591.56704.48745.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)291.86294.63297.39
Year 2 PV (M)339.59346.06352.59
Year 3 PV (M)385.66396.73408.01
Year 4 PV (M)430.11446.65463.66
Year 5 PV (M)472.97495.82519.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,704.8612,270.2112,857.19
Equity Value (M)13,625.0414,250.0814,898.38
Shares Outstanding (M)784.36784.36784.36
Fair Value$17.37$18.17$18.99
Upside / Downside-52.07%-49.87%-47.59%

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