Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Capchem Technology Co., Ltd. (300037.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.22 - $258.37$242.13
Multi-Stage$38.11 - $41.72$39.88
Blended Fair Value$141.01
Current Price$53.38
Upside164.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.38%27.60%0.650.530.400.240.150.120.130.130.070.00
YoY Growth--21.79%33.42%65.44%57.21%33.65%-11.79%-2.93%85.26%8,140.63%-98.45%
Dividend Yield--1.96%1.55%0.82%0.53%0.36%0.58%0.89%1.14%0.51%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)988.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)667.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.72123.5874.15
Cash Retained (M)667.96667.96667.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.72-123.58-74.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)470.24544.39593.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)760.98760.98760.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.720.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.720.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.22$242.13$258.37
Upside / Downside108.36%353.59%384.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)988.621,052.881,121.321,194.211,271.831,354.501,395.13
Payout Ratio32.43%43.95%55.46%66.97%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.66462.72621.90799.81998.221,219.051,290.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)430.46434.54438.62
Year 2 PV (M)538.19548.45558.79
Year 3 PV (M)643.90662.38681.22
Year 4 PV (M)747.60776.35805.92
Year 5 PV (M)849.33890.35932.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,792.9927,038.8028,332.29
Equity Value (M)29,002.4730,350.8731,749.79
Shares Outstanding (M)760.98760.98760.98
Fair Value$38.11$39.88$41.72
Upside / Downside-28.60%-25.28%-21.84%

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