Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongmin Energy Co., Ltd. (600163.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.45 - $59.57$55.83
Multi-Stage$8.66 - $9.49$9.07
Blended Fair Value$32.45
Current Price$5.15
Upside530.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.01%8.14%0.120.160.080.090.090.080.040.040.030.05
YoY Growth---24.32%99.55%-12.34%0.42%10.58%91.06%16.52%12.73%-35.84%-7.61%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.53%1.50%1.18%1.76%2.61%1.04%0.91%0.54%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)570.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)484.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.0171.2642.75
Cash Retained (M)484.77484.77484.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.01-71.26-42.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)370.76413.52442.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,903.061,903.061,903.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.45$55.83$59.57
Upside / Downside394.13%984.03%1,056.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)570.05607.10646.56688.59733.35781.02804.45
Payout Ratio14.96%29.97%44.98%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.27181.93290.79413.04549.95702.91744.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.23170.84172.44
Year 2 PV (M)251.62256.41261.25
Year 3 PV (M)332.46342.00351.72
Year 4 PV (M)411.76427.59443.88
Year 5 PV (M)489.56513.20537.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,834.8015,551.3216,295.27
Equity Value (M)16,489.4217,261.3718,062.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,903.061,903.061,903.06
Fair Value$8.66$9.07$9.49
Upside / Downside68.25%76.12%84.30%

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