Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd. (000738.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.85 - $78.96$47.58
Multi-Stage$9.48 - $10.36$9.91
Blended Fair Value$28.74
Current Price$20.10
Upside43.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.79%25.35%0.170.050.040.040.030.030.030.020.020.01
YoY Growth--214.82%17.78%14.02%13.27%0.00%14.29%75.00%0.00%17.65%-15.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.29%0.18%0.17%0.20%0.29%0.19%0.10%0.07%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.4665.2939.17
Cash Retained (M)295.32295.32295.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.46-65.29-39.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.86230.03256.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,315.481,315.481,315.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.85$47.58$78.96
Upside / Downside-6.21%136.71%292.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.32556.27592.43630.94671.95715.63737.10
Payout Ratio43.46%52.77%62.08%71.38%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)227.00293.53367.76450.39542.21644.06681.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.05273.62276.19
Year 2 PV (M)313.58319.55325.58
Year 3 PV (M)354.62364.80375.18
Year 4 PV (M)394.22409.38424.98
Year 5 PV (M)432.41453.30474.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,701.0111,217.8711,754.51
Equity Value (M)12,466.8913,038.5213,631.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,315.481,315.481,315.48
Fair Value$9.48$9.91$10.36
Upside / Downside-52.85%-50.69%-48.45%

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