Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Segmen Kardesler Gid Urt Ve Amblj Sny AS (SEGMN.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.03 - $11.40$9.69
Multi-Stage$13.05 - $14.28$13.65
Blended Fair Value$11.67
Current Price$23.18
Upside-49.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.300.240.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--27.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)217.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.5827.2416.34
Cash Retained (M)66.7466.7466.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.58-27.24-16.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1639.5150.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)179.00179.00179.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.03$9.69$11.40
Upside / Downside-65.34%-58.18%-50.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)217.91215.73213.57211.44209.32207.23213.45
Payout Ratio69.37%73.50%77.62%81.75%85.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.17158.55165.78172.85179.76186.51197.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)142.84144.30145.76
Year 2 PV (M)134.55137.31140.10
Year 3 PV (M)126.38130.29134.28
Year 4 PV (M)118.41123.32128.38
Year 5 PV (M)110.68116.45122.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,703.341,792.041,884.39
Equity Value (M)2,336.212,443.702,555.35
Shares Outstanding (M)179.00179.00179.00
Fair Value$13.05$13.65$14.28
Upside / Downside-43.70%-41.10%-38.41%

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