Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.34 - $5.04$4.14
Multi-Stage$5.89 - $6.45$6.16
Blended Fair Value$5.15
Current Price$4.14
Upside24.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.76%21.26%0.150.140.130.130.120.120.120.120.100.11
YoY Growth--10.05%2.80%3.07%4.73%3.32%-3.21%3.93%20.62%-14.75%426.60%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.34%4.56%4.68%4.90%4.49%4.77%4.03%3.46%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,674.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,160.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)334.80209.25125.55
Cash Retained (M)514.00514.00514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-334.80-209.25-125.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.20304.75388.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$3.34$4.14$5.04
Upside / Downside-19.30%0.10%21.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,674.001,672.461,670.911,669.371,667.841,666.301,716.29
Payout Ratio69.30%73.44%77.58%81.72%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,160.001,228.191,296.251,364.181,431.991,499.671,587.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.05%8.05%8.05%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,125.271,136.641,148.02
Year 2 PV (M)1,088.101,110.221,132.55
Year 3 PV (M)1,049.171,081.311,114.11
Year 4 PV (M)1,009.031,050.461,093.15
Year 5 PV (M)968.171,018.111,070.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,280.0821,326.2322,415.10
Equity Value (M)25,519.8226,722.9727,973.03
Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
Fair Value$5.89$6.16$6.45
Upside / Downside42.19%48.90%55.86%

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