Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Duke Energy Corporation 5.625% (DUKB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.06 - $478.57$252.44
Multi-Stage$285.92 - $314.22$299.80
Blended Fair Value$276.12
Current Price$24.99
Upside1,004.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%3.70%4.144.184.104.013.623.443.183.163.012.90
YoY Growth---0.96%2.04%2.09%10.74%5.40%7.97%0.86%5.06%3.46%0.90%
Dividend Yield--17.34%16.91%16.35%15.61%13.50%13.43%12.48%12.69%12.08%11.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,989.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,257.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,732.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)997.80623.63374.18
Cash Retained (M)1,732.001,732.001,732.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-997.80-623.63-374.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)734.201,108.381,357.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)776.00776.00776.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.431.75
LTM Dividend per Share4.204.204.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.431.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.145.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate4.99%4.99%4.99%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Fair Value$159.06$252.44$478.57
Upside / Downside536.48%910.16%1,815.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,989.005,123.755,262.145,404.275,550.245,700.155,871.15
Payout Ratio65.28%70.23%75.17%80.11%85.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,257.003,598.253,955.564,329.554,720.855,130.135,430.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.99%4.99%4.99%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)3,393.873,427.253,460.62
Year 2 PV (M)3,518.983,588.523,658.74
Year 3 PV (M)3,632.923,741.143,851.49
Year 4 PV (M)3,736.263,885.394,038.95
Year 5 PV (M)3,829.574,021.584,221.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)203,761.43213,978.06224,600.44
Equity Value (M)221,873.03232,641.94243,831.46
Shares Outstanding (M)776.00776.00776.00
Fair Value$285.92$299.80$314.22
Upside / Downside1,044.13%1,099.67%1,157.37%

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