Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Te Chang Construction Co., Ltd. (5511.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$234.53 - $859.41$391.89
Multi-Stage$151.99 - $165.96$158.85
Blended Fair Value$275.37
Current Price$61.40
Upside348.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS18.95%0.00%4.982.391.991.992.192.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--108.33%20.00%0.00%-9.09%4.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.28%3.34%5.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)932.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)501.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)186.49116.5569.93
Cash Retained (M)501.36501.36501.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-186.49-116.55-69.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)314.87384.81431.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
LTM Dividend per Share3.793.793.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.383.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.557.177.58
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$234.53$391.89$859.41
Upside / Downside281.97%538.26%1,299.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)932.43993.041,057.591,126.331,199.541,277.511,315.84
Payout Ratio46.23%54.98%63.74%72.49%81.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.07546.02674.09816.50974.581,149.761,217.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)498.76503.49508.22
Year 2 PV (M)562.45573.16583.98
Year 3 PV (M)622.31640.17658.38
Year 4 PV (M)678.50704.59731.43
Year 5 PV (M)731.17766.49803.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,208.2214,894.4815,607.01
Equity Value (M)17,301.4118,082.3918,892.16
Shares Outstanding (M)113.83113.83113.83
Fair Value$151.99$158.85$165.96
Upside / Downside147.54%158.71%170.30%

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