Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Q P Group Holdings Limited (1412.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.72 - $8.03$6.16
Multi-Stage$19.08 - $21.05$20.04
Blended Fair Value$13.10
Current Price$1.50
Upside773.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.130.140.140.110.020.020.030.060.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-7.14%0.00%27.27%485.20%0.00%-33.33%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%10.48%10.29%11.38%12.09%1.71%1.71%0.00%5.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.8426.1515.69
Cash Retained (M)54.9454.9454.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.84-26.15-15.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0928.7839.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.72$6.16$8.03
Upside / Downside214.73%310.63%435.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.22207.12205.05203.00200.97198.96204.93
Payout Ratio73.74%76.99%80.25%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.28159.47164.54169.50174.34179.07189.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.53%4.53%4.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)151.02152.56154.10
Year 2 PV (M)147.56150.59153.65
Year 3 PV (M)143.95148.40152.94
Year 4 PV (M)140.21146.02152.01
Year 5 PV (M)136.38143.48150.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,431.599,922.7110,434.08
Equity Value (M)10,150.7110,663.7611,197.66
Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
Fair Value$19.08$20.04$21.05
Upside / Downside1,172.02%1,236.31%1,303.22%

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