Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (0586.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.96 - $86.55$58.07
Multi-Stage$53.98 - $59.24$56.56
Blended Fair Value$57.32
Current Price$8.26
Upside593.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.72%3.35%0.280.380.630.610.610.500.440.270.270.33
YoY Growth---26.07%-38.53%3.08%0.26%20.77%13.24%63.69%0.86%-19.03%61.90%
Dividend Yield--4.54%6.55%4.18%2.19%2.13%1.84%2.42%1.96%2.43%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,950.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,165.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,785.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)790.17493.85296.31
Cash Retained (M)2,785.072,785.072,785.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-790.17-493.85-296.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,994.902,291.212,488.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,742.441,742.441,742.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.311.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Fair Value$40.96$58.07$86.55
Upside / Downside395.84%603.05%947.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,950.834,074.774,202.604,334.434,470.404,610.634,748.95
Payout Ratio29.51%41.61%53.70%65.80%77.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,165.771,695.332,256.972,852.173,482.504,149.574,392.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate2.14%3.14%4.14%
Year 1 PV (M)1,574.051,589.461,604.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,945.601,983.892,022.55
Year 3 PV (M)2,282.812,350.522,419.56
Year 4 PV (M)2,587.922,690.762,796.65
Year 5 PV (M)2,863.033,005.963,154.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,796.6286,929.9891,226.80
Equity Value (M)94,050.0398,550.58103,224.96
Shares Outstanding (M)1,742.441,742.441,742.44
Fair Value$53.98$56.56$59.24
Upside / Downside553.46%584.73%617.21%

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