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ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.49 - $406.70$241.93
Multi-Stage$116.43 - $127.09$121.66
Blended Fair Value$181.79
Current Price$94.59
Upside92.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.44%0.34%2.944.504.621.901.481.211.101.051.012.95
YoY Growth---34.69%-2.50%142.73%28.84%22.07%10.05%4.44%4.15%-65.80%3.94%
Dividend Yield--2.80%3.50%4.65%1.90%2.79%3.93%1.62%1.77%2.03%7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,976.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,766.001,103.75662.25
Cash Retained (M)4,976.004,976.004,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,766.00-1,103.75-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,210.003,872.254,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.593.123.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.696.236.58
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Fair Value$160.49$241.93$406.70
Upside / Downside69.67%155.76%329.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,830.009,390.009,985.5210,618.8011,292.2512,008.4112,368.66
Payout Ratio43.65%52.92%62.19%71.46%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,854.004,968.946,209.797,588.069,116.1610,807.5711,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.34%6.34%7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)4,512.484,555.324,598.15
Year 2 PV (M)5,121.305,219.005,317.61
Year 3 PV (M)5,683.105,846.496,012.98
Year 4 PV (M)6,200.386,439.196,684.84
Year 5 PV (M)6,675.536,998.467,333.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,230.18121,852.72127,690.78
Equity Value (M)144,422.98150,911.17157,638.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,240.401,240.401,240.40
Fair Value$116.43$121.66$127.09
Upside / Downside23.09%28.62%34.36%

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