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Australian Clinical Labs Limited (ACL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.41 - $3.62$2.99
Multi-Stage$4.93 - $5.41$5.16
Blended Fair Value$4.07
Current Price$2.78
Upside46.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.130.100.500.120.220.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.05%-79.41%300.03%-42.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.60%4.07%14.43%2.70%6.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.277.054.23
Cash Retained (M)11.4711.4711.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.27-7.05-4.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.204.427.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.19195.19195.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.41$2.99$3.62
Upside / Downside-13.15%7.41%30.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.3655.8055.2454.6954.1453.6055.21
Payout Ratio79.65%81.72%83.79%85.86%87.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.9045.6046.2946.9647.6148.2451.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.38%7.38%7.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.0442.4742.90
Year 2 PV (M)39.3440.1540.96
Year 3 PV (M)36.7937.9339.09
Year 4 PV (M)34.3935.8137.28
Year 5 PV (M)32.1233.8035.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)776.99817.45859.58
Equity Value (M)961.671,007.601,055.35
Shares Outstanding (M)195.19195.19195.19
Fair Value$4.93$5.16$5.41
Upside / Downside77.22%85.69%94.48%

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