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Elders Limited (ELD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.69 - $159.44$149.42
Multi-Stage$25.81 - $28.22$26.99
Blended Fair Value$88.21
Current Price$6.71
Upside1,214.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.28%34.99%0.350.450.450.300.150.120.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth---22.12%-0.56%52.16%92.38%30.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-34.45%
Dividend Yield--4.21%7.91%3.88%2.47%1.45%1.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.1416.349.80
Cash Retained (M)19.9519.9519.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.14-16.34-9.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.193.6210.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.69$149.42$159.44
Upside / Downside1,177.06%2,126.85%2,276.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.70139.19148.24157.88168.14179.07184.44
Payout Ratio84.73%85.79%86.84%87.89%88.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.74119.41128.73138.76149.55161.16170.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.29112.34113.40
Year 2 PV (M)111.82113.95116.10
Year 3 PV (M)112.33115.56118.84
Year 4 PV (M)112.84117.17121.64
Year 5 PV (M)113.32118.80124.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,646.753,822.894,005.77
Equity Value (M)4,208.344,400.704,600.22
Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
Fair Value$25.81$26.99$28.22
Upside / Downside284.72%302.31%320.55%

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