Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.,Ltd. (688630.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.90 - $307.38$288.06
Multi-Stage$210.88 - $231.46$220.98
Blended Fair Value$254.52
Current Price$141.34
Upside80.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS594.14%0.00%0.790.000.180.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16,247.87%-97.37%1,105.12%1,724.59%1,603.54%-67.86%-81.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.01%0.24%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8925.5515.33
Cash Retained (M)155.62155.62155.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.89-25.55-15.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.73130.06140.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.90$288.06$307.38
Upside / Downside84.59%103.81%117.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.43217.72231.87246.94262.99280.09288.49
Payout Ratio23.88%37.10%50.33%63.55%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.8280.78116.69156.94201.92252.08266.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.23%-1.23%-1.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.0281.7882.55
Year 2 PV (M)117.37119.61121.87
Year 3 PV (M)158.31162.85167.48
Year 4 PV (M)204.28212.13220.21
Year 5 PV (M)255.77268.12280.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,076.0228,383.8029,741.63
Equity Value (M)27,892.7629,228.3030,614.70
Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
Fair Value$210.88$220.98$231.46
Upside / Downside49.20%56.35%63.76%

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