Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment Co.,Ltd. (688630.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$260.90 - $307.38$288.06
Multi-Stage$214.40 - $235.33$224.67
Blended Fair Value$256.37
Current Price$141.34
Upside81.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS594.14%0.00%0.790.000.180.020.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16,247.87%-97.37%1,105.12%1,724.59%1,603.54%-67.86%-81.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.01%0.24%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.8925.5515.33
Cash Retained (M)155.62155.62155.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.89-25.55-15.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.73130.06140.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.981.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate-1.56%-1.56%-1.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$260.90$288.06$307.38
Upside / Downside84.59%103.81%117.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.43217.72231.87246.94262.99280.09288.49
Payout Ratio23.88%37.10%50.33%63.55%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.8280.78116.69156.94201.92252.08266.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.56%-1.56%-1.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.2982.0682.83
Year 2 PV (M)118.16120.41122.68
Year 3 PV (M)159.90164.49169.17
Year 4 PV (M)207.02214.98223.17
Year 5 PV (M)260.08272.64285.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,531.9128,861.7130,242.41
Equity Value (M)28,358.3629,716.3031,125.95
Shares Outstanding (M)132.27132.27132.27
Fair Value$214.40$224.67$235.33
Upside / Downside51.69%58.96%66.50%

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