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Origin Energy Limited (ORG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.18 - $267.70$95.17
Multi-Stage$43.69 - $47.81$45.71
Blended Fair Value$70.44
Current Price$10.79
Upside552.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%6.12%0.570.470.330.180.200.280.100.000.000.24
YoY Growth--21.00%44.19%81.47%-8.21%-28.21%187.88%8,150.00%0.00%-99.52%-23.58%
Dividend Yield--5.32%4.34%3.91%3.16%4.38%4.71%1.29%0.01%0.02%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,878.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,068.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.60359.75215.85
Cash Retained (M)1,068.001,068.001,068.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.60-359.75-215.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)492.40708.25852.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.410.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.461.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$53.18$95.17$267.70
Upside / Downside392.84%781.97%2,380.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,878.003,025.433,180.423,343.353,514.623,694.663,805.50
Payout Ratio62.89%68.31%73.73%79.16%84.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,810.002,066.762,345.072,646.472,972.603,325.203,520.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,917.941,936.361,954.78
Year 2 PV (M)2,019.512,058.492,097.84
Year 3 PV (M)2,114.972,176.502,239.20
Year 4 PV (M)2,204.552,290.472,378.87
Year 5 PV (M)2,288.482,400.502,516.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,878.2268,054.1171,353.16
Equity Value (M)75,423.6778,916.4282,540.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,726.401,726.401,726.40
Fair Value$43.69$45.71$47.81
Upside / Downside304.90%323.65%343.10%

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