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GWA Group Limited (GWA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.78 - $4.27$3.47
Multi-Stage$6.67 - $7.33$7.00
Blended Fair Value$5.23
Current Price$2.40
Upside118.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.31%1.55%0.150.140.140.130.080.170.180.170.160.07
YoY Growth--10.71%0.00%3.70%65.87%-53.27%-5.40%5.71%6.06%132.67%-46.90%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.99%7.90%6.77%2.90%6.21%5.27%5.06%5.15%3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4010.256.15
Cash Retained (M)3.783.783.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.40-10.25-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.63-6.48-2.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.54268.54268.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$2.78$3.47$4.27
Upside / Downside15.67%44.61%77.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.0181.0480.0879.1378.2077.2779.59
Payout Ratio95.40%94.32%93.24%92.16%91.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.2376.4374.6672.9371.2269.5473.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)71.0971.8272.55
Year 2 PV (M)64.5965.9267.26
Year 3 PV (M)58.6860.5062.36
Year 4 PV (M)53.3055.5257.80
Year 5 PV (M)48.4150.9453.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,496.291,574.351,655.64
Equity Value (M)1,792.371,879.051,969.17
Shares Outstanding (M)268.54268.54268.54
Fair Value$6.67$7.00$7.33
Upside / Downside178.11%191.56%205.54%

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