Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.57 - $75.52$59.56
Multi-Stage$36.64 - $40.00$38.29
Blended Fair Value$48.93
Current Price$191.49
Upside-74.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.42%16.19%0.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--111.14%-0.75%-0.25%1.01%1.28%5.12%8.80%30.65%22.54%14.52%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.21%0.34%0.25%0.40%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,221.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,839.6012,399.757,439.85
Cash Retained (M)98,221.0098,221.0098,221.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,839.60-12,399.75-7,439.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)78,381.4085,821.2590,781.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate12.81%12.81%12.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.57$59.56$75.52
Upside / Downside-75.68%-68.89%-60.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,198.00105,645.87112,512.85119,826.19127,614.89135,909.86139,987.15
Payout Ratio0.98%18.79%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)977.0019,848.6641,169.5165,178.2192,134.10122,318.87129,488.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.81%12.81%12.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,429.1017,594.3017,759.51
Year 2 PV (M)31,744.1032,348.7432,959.08
Year 3 PV (M)44,129.9545,396.7646,687.59
Year 4 PV (M)54,776.6056,883.1559,049.88
Year 5 PV (M)63,857.4866,941.8270,144.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)688,883.84722,157.18756,703.98
Equity Value (M)900,821.06941,321.95983,304.24
Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
Fair Value$36.64$38.29$40.00
Upside / Downside-80.86%-80.00%-79.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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