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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.66 - $251.10$144.74
Multi-Stage$63.03 - $68.96$65.94
Blended Fair Value$105.34
Current Price$191.49
Upside-44.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.42%16.19%0.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--111.14%-0.75%-0.25%1.01%1.28%5.12%8.80%30.65%22.54%14.52%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.21%0.34%0.25%0.40%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,221.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,839.6012,399.757,439.85
Cash Retained (M)98,221.0098,221.0098,221.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,839.60-12,399.75-7,439.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)78,381.4085,821.2590,781.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.66$144.74$251.10
Upside / Downside-50.57%-24.41%31.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,198.00105,645.87112,512.85119,826.19127,614.89135,909.86139,987.15
Payout Ratio0.98%18.79%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)977.0019,848.6641,169.5165,178.2192,134.10122,318.87129,488.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,022.5918,193.4218,364.25
Year 2 PV (M)33,942.8134,589.3335,241.94
Year 3 PV (M)48,793.3550,194.0351,621.26
Year 4 PV (M)62,627.4465,035.9167,513.19
Year 5 PV (M)75,495.9779,142.4682,928.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,310,607.971,373,910.831,439,636.43
Equity Value (M)1,549,490.131,621,065.971,695,305.58
Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
Fair Value$63.03$65.94$68.96
Upside / Downside-67.08%-65.56%-63.99%

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