Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. (002236.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.26 - $50.79$33.37
Multi-Stage$17.27 - $18.84$18.04
Blended Fair Value$25.70
Current Price$20.15
Upside27.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.13%31.66%0.580.570.280.270.140.120.210.110.080.04
YoY Growth--0.84%105.07%2.88%96.87%11.60%-41.87%94.35%33.63%125.39%-1.58%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.00%1.24%1.64%0.56%0.77%1.23%0.43%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,896.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,497.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,398.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)779.24487.02292.21
Cash Retained (M)2,398.782,398.782,398.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-779.24-487.02-292.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.541,911.752,106.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.26$33.37$50.79
Upside / Downside15.46%65.59%152.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,896.194,149.444,419.154,706.405,012.315,338.115,498.26
Payout Ratio38.43%48.75%59.06%69.37%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,497.412,022.692,609.943,264.973,994.144,804.305,085.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,824.121,841.411,858.70
Year 2 PV (M)2,122.652,163.082,203.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,394.712,463.452,533.50
Year 4 PV (M)2,641.922,743.522,848.03
Year 5 PV (M)2,865.843,004.263,147.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,324.1446,465.0148,687.82
Equity Value (M)56,173.3858,680.7361,279.91
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
Fair Value$17.27$18.04$18.84
Upside / Downside-14.31%-10.49%-6.52%

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