Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd. (002236.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.60 - $238.16$223.19
Multi-Stage$32.36 - $35.40$33.85
Blended Fair Value$128.52
Current Price$20.15
Upside537.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.13%31.66%0.580.570.280.270.140.120.210.110.080.04
YoY Growth--0.84%105.07%2.88%96.87%11.60%-41.87%94.35%33.63%125.39%-1.58%
Dividend Yield--3.40%3.00%1.24%1.64%0.56%0.77%1.23%0.43%0.51%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,896.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,497.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,398.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)779.24487.02292.21
Cash Retained (M)2,398.782,398.782,398.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-779.24-487.02-292.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,619.541,911.752,106.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.60$223.19$238.16
Upside / Downside290.06%1,007.67%1,081.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,896.194,149.444,419.154,706.405,012.315,338.115,498.26
Payout Ratio38.43%48.75%59.06%69.37%79.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,497.412,022.692,609.943,264.973,994.144,804.305,085.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,876.371,894.161,911.94
Year 2 PV (M)2,245.992,288.772,331.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,606.432,681.252,757.49
Year 4 PV (M)2,957.863,071.613,188.61
Year 5 PV (M)3,300.453,459.873,625.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,285.3396,742.75101,370.76
Equity Value (M)105,272.43110,138.40115,186.13
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.453,253.453,253.45
Fair Value$32.36$33.85$35.40
Upside / Downside60.58%68.00%75.70%

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