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Quality Houses Hotel and Residence Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund (QHHR.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.75 - $21.00$17.83
Multi-Stage$31.96 - $35.22$33.56
Blended Fair Value$25.69
Current Price$6.70
Upside283.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-0.73%-2.22%0.560.050.000.300.600.580.600.780.740.74
YoY Growth--1,019.97%0.00%-100.00%-50.57%3.77%-3.33%-22.93%5.40%-0.01%5.62%
Dividend Yield--8.48%0.77%0.00%5.52%8.74%6.68%6.83%7.84%8.41%8.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)757.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)532.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.5094.6956.81
Cash Retained (M)532.06532.06532.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.50-94.69-56.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)380.56437.37475.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)336.00336.00336.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.301.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.301.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-4.22%-3.22%-2.22%
Fair Value$14.75$17.83$21.00
Upside / Downside120.22%166.10%213.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)757.51733.15709.58686.77664.68643.31662.61
Payout Ratio29.76%41.81%53.86%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.45306.53382.16452.61518.14578.98612.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.49%7.49%7.49%
Growth Rate-4.22%-3.22%-2.22%
Year 1 PV (M)282.21285.16288.11
Year 2 PV (M)323.94330.74337.61
Year 3 PV (M)353.22364.40375.81
Year 4 PV (M)372.28388.07404.36
Year 5 PV (M)383.00403.42424.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,022.819,503.7410,004.96
Equity Value (M)10,737.4611,275.5311,835.54
Shares Outstanding (M)336.00336.00336.00
Fair Value$31.96$33.56$35.22
Upside / Downside376.97%400.87%425.74%

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