Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nordic Paper Holding AB (publ) (NPAPER.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.57 - $117.80$89.84
Multi-Stage$292.06 - $322.72$307.08
Blended Fair Value$198.46
Current Price$66.95
Upside196.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%3.984.621.991.9914.110.000.001.490.000.00
YoY Growth---13.83%132.09%0.00%-85.89%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.41%8.60%4.44%5.89%29.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)371.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.2047.0028.20
Cash Retained (M)371.20371.20371.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.20-47.00-28.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)296.00324.20343.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.3167.3167.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.404.825.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.404.825.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.474.895.17
WACC / Discount Rate4.39%4.39%4.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$68.57$89.84$117.80
Upside / Downside2.43%34.18%75.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.00372.24368.52364.83361.18357.57368.30
Payout Ratio1.28%19.02%36.77%54.51%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.8070.80135.49198.87260.97321.82340.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.39%4.39%4.39%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)67.1467.8368.51
Year 2 PV (M)121.84124.34126.87
Year 3 PV (M)169.59174.84180.19
Year 4 PV (M)211.05219.80228.81
Year 5 PV (M)246.80259.65273.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,841.5219,822.6420,844.21
Equity Value (M)19,657.9420,669.0921,721.62
Shares Outstanding (M)67.3167.3167.31
Fair Value$292.06$307.08$322.72
Upside / Downside336.23%358.67%382.03%

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