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Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.35 - $274.15$158.03
Multi-Stage$70.94 - $77.49$74.16
Blended Fair Value$116.09
Current Price$105.84
Upside9.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.196.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---80.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.53%8.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.5310.336.20
Cash Retained (M)60.6060.6060.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.53-10.33-6.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0750.2754.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.7618.7618.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.352.682.90
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.352.682.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.864.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.35$158.03$274.15
Upside / Downside-2.35%49.31%159.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.6688.0393.7599.85106.34113.25116.65
Payout Ratio26.69%39.35%52.01%64.67%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.0634.6448.7664.5882.24101.92107.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.4531.7532.05
Year 2 PV (M)40.2040.9741.74
Year 3 PV (M)48.3449.7351.14
Year 4 PV (M)55.9058.0560.26
Year 5 PV (M)62.9165.9569.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,092.091,144.841,199.61
Equity Value (M)1,330.901,391.291,453.91
Shares Outstanding (M)18.7618.7618.76
Fair Value$70.94$74.16$77.49
Upside / Downside-32.98%-29.94%-26.78%

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