Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kalmar Oyj (KALMAR.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.77 - $32.03$26.01
Multi-Stage$46.51 - $51.19$48.81
Blended Fair Value$37.41
Current Price$33.72
Upside10.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.670.860.270.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---99.81%94.57%213.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%6.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.0018.1310.88
Cash Retained (M)81.0081.0081.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.00-18.13-10.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.0062.8870.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.981.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.77$26.01$32.03
Upside / Downside-38.40%-22.88%-5.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.00143.55142.11140.69139.29137.89142.03
Payout Ratio44.14%53.31%62.48%71.66%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.0076.5388.80100.81112.58124.10131.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)71.1271.8572.57
Year 2 PV (M)76.6978.2679.85
Year 3 PV (M)80.9283.4285.97
Year 4 PV (M)83.9887.4691.05
Year 5 PV (M)86.0390.5195.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,589.762,724.622,865.03
Equity Value (M)2,988.503,136.123,289.65
Shares Outstanding (M)64.2664.2664.26
Fair Value$46.51$48.81$51.19
Upside / Downside37.92%44.74%51.82%

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