Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk (JARR.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$344.53 - $537.29$433.43
Multi-Stage$797.80 - $879.64$837.91
Blended Fair Value$635.67
Current Price$376.00
Upside69.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333,269.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52,153.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)281,116.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66,653.8841,658.6724,995.20
Cash Retained (M)281,116.14281,116.14281,116.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-66,653.88-41,658.67-24,995.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)214,462.26239,457.46256,120.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,230.679,230.679,230.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.2325.9427.75
LTM Dividend per Share5.655.655.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.2325.9427.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.8831.5933.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$344.53$433.43$537.29
Upside / Downside-8.37%15.27%42.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333,269.40329,936.70326,637.34323,370.96320,137.25316,935.88326,443.96
Payout Ratio15.65%30.52%45.39%60.26%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52,153.26100,693.99148,258.69194,862.02240,518.46285,242.29301,960.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)93,843.7394,801.3195,758.90
Year 2 PV (M)128,772.63131,414.05134,082.28
Year 3 PV (M)157,736.54162,614.65167,592.31
Year 4 PV (M)181,449.27188,969.50196,721.10
Year 5 PV (M)200,549.89210,992.99221,866.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,601,887.256,945,662.847,303,612.52
Equity Value (M)7,364,239.317,734,455.348,119,633.78
Shares Outstanding (M)9,230.679,230.679,230.67
Fair Value$797.80$837.91$879.64
Upside / Downside112.18%122.85%133.95%

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