Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Hartadinata Abadi Tbk (HRTA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,013.25 - $30,920.77$28,977.29
Multi-Stage$4,472.74 - $4,899.59$4,682.23
Blended Fair Value$16,829.76
Current Price$915.00
Upside1,739.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.47%0.00%15.0012.0010.008.008.007.006.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.00%20.00%25.00%0.00%14.29%16.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.88%3.02%2.70%3.77%3.92%2.69%2.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)716,018.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96,710.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)619,308.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)143,203.7589,502.3453,701.40
Cash Retained (M)619,308.22619,308.22619,308.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-143,203.75-89,502.34-53,701.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)476,104.48529,805.88565,606.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,605.264,605.264,605.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share103.38115.04122.82
LTM Dividend per Share21.0021.0021.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share103.38115.04122.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend124.38136.04143.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13,013.25$28,977.29$30,920.77
Upside / Downside1,322.21%3,066.92%3,279.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)716,018.73762,559.95812,126.35864,914.56921,134.01981,007.721,010,437.95
Payout Ratio13.51%28.81%44.10%59.40%74.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96,710.51219,658.15358,180.37513,782.43688,099.45882,906.94934,655.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)204,299.06206,235.54208,172.02
Year 2 PV (M)309,841.71315,743.32321,700.61
Year 3 PV (M)413,367.56425,233.86437,325.10
Year 4 PV (M)514,905.35534,707.15555,074.68
Year 5 PV (M)614,483.43644,163.20674,978.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,541,260.1419,436,809.9420,366,634.54
Equity Value (M)20,598,157.2421,562,893.0222,563,885.86
Shares Outstanding (M)4,605.264,605.264,605.26
Fair Value$4,472.74$4,682.23$4,899.59
Upside / Downside388.82%411.72%435.47%

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