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Heineken N.V. (HNK1.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.11 - $240.08$144.23
Multi-Stage$125.69 - $137.71$131.59
Blended Fair Value$137.91
Current Price$74.02
Upside86.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.74%5.19%2.132.371.951.411.041.691.941.801.831.62
YoY Growth---10.19%21.47%38.07%36.54%-38.70%-12.75%7.81%-1.94%13.42%25.73%
Dividend Yield--3.10%2.61%2.22%1.43%1.14%1.78%2.51%2.07%2.57%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,498.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,076.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)499.60312.25187.35
Cash Retained (M)421.50421.50421.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-499.60-312.25-187.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-78.10109.25234.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
LTM Dividend per Share3.693.693.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.190.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.553.894.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Fair Value$96.11$144.23$240.08
Upside / Downside29.85%94.86%224.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,498.002,584.692,674.392,767.202,863.242,962.603,051.48
Payout Ratio83.13%84.50%85.88%87.25%88.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,076.502,184.102,296.662,414.402,537.552,666.342,822.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate2.47%3.47%4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,035.602,055.472,075.33
Year 2 PV (M)1,994.992,034.112,073.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,954.682,012.462,071.38
Year 4 PV (M)1,914.711,990.552,068.62
Year 5 PV (M)1,875.101,968.402,065.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)60,931.9063,963.6567,114.88
Equity Value (M)70,706.9774,024.6477,469.21
Shares Outstanding (M)562.56562.56562.56
Fair Value$125.69$131.59$137.71
Upside / Downside69.80%77.77%86.04%

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