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Carter's, Inc. (CRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.52 - $25.14$21.25
Multi-Stage$30.99 - $33.91$32.42
Blended Fair Value$26.83
Current Price$29.20
Upside-8.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.33%11.12%3.293.173.341.700.742.532.372.011.881.30
YoY Growth--3.73%-5.17%96.45%128.96%-70.69%7.02%18.05%6.87%44.16%13.71%
Dividend Yield--8.12%3.74%4.64%1.91%0.83%3.64%2.35%1.93%2.09%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.8211.146.68
Cash Retained (M)13.0213.0213.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.82-11.14-6.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.801.886.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.3635.3635.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.050.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.050.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.022.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.17%-1.17%-0.17%
Fair Value$17.52$21.25$25.14
Upside / Downside-40.00%-27.23%-13.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.1088.0587.0286.0084.9983.9986.51
Payout Ratio85.39%86.31%87.24%88.16%89.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.0876.0075.9175.8175.7075.5980.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.17%-1.17%-0.17%
Year 1 PV (M)68.9769.6770.38
Year 2 PV (M)62.5163.8065.10
Year 3 PV (M)56.6658.4160.20
Year 4 PV (M)51.3453.4755.67
Year 5 PV (M)46.5248.9551.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)810.01852.26896.26
Equity Value (M)1,096.011,146.571,199.09
Shares Outstanding (M)35.3635.3635.36
Fair Value$30.99$32.42$33.91
Upside / Downside6.14%11.03%16.12%

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