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ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.15 - $190.93$122.31
Multi-Stage$64.30 - $70.34$67.26
Blended Fair Value$94.79
Current Price$69.87
Upside35.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.65%10.66%0.480.490.460.350.350.350.350.350.360.29
YoY Growth---2.14%6.57%33.06%-0.22%-0.37%-0.69%-0.24%-0.65%21.66%66.67%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.35%0.50%0.43%0.50%2.00%1.08%1.11%1.37%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4512.167.29
Cash Retained (M)86.1786.1786.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.45-12.16-7.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)66.7274.0178.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.3223.3223.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.863.173.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.863.173.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.343.653.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Fair Value$84.15$122.31$190.93
Upside / Downside20.43%75.05%173.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.25103.02109.14115.62122.48129.76133.65
Payout Ratio11.39%27.11%42.84%58.56%74.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0827.9346.7567.7090.98116.78123.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.94%5.94%6.94%
Year 1 PV (M)25.3625.6025.85
Year 2 PV (M)38.5439.2840.02
Year 3 PV (M)50.6852.1453.63
Year 4 PV (M)61.8364.2266.68
Year 5 PV (M)72.0675.5679.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,250.961,311.721,374.81
Equity Value (M)1,499.441,568.521,640.18
Shares Outstanding (M)23.3223.3223.32
Fair Value$64.30$67.26$70.34
Upside / Downside-7.97%-3.73%0.67%

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