Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co., Ltd (688239.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.73 - $226.58$96.29
Multi-Stage$24.79 - $27.12$25.93
Blended Fair Value$61.11
Current Price$43.99
Upside38.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.34%21.26%0.350.440.330.100.110.080.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth---20.16%35.03%212.88%-5.50%32.22%79.59%26.87%-8.38%-8.27%-14.81%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.67%0.57%0.25%0.37%0.28%0.15%0.00%0.13%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.4123.3814.03
Cash Retained (M)139.40139.40139.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.41-23.38-14.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.00116.02125.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.73$96.29$226.58
Upside / Downside3.96%118.89%415.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.03199.18212.13225.92240.60256.24263.93
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.19%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6376.43108.78145.01185.49230.62244.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.3671.0371.70
Year 2 PV (M)92.1993.9595.72
Year 3 PV (M)113.14116.39119.70
Year 4 PV (M)133.24138.36143.64
Year 5 PV (M)152.51159.88167.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,507.743,677.163,853.07
Equity Value (M)4,069.184,256.774,451.35
Shares Outstanding (M)164.16164.16164.16
Fair Value$24.79$25.93$27.12
Upside / Downside-43.65%-41.05%-38.36%

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