Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xiamen Leading Optics Co., Ltd. (605118.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.11 - $9.36$7.63
Multi-Stage$13.34 - $14.68$14.00
Blended Fair Value$10.81
Current Price$29.05
Upside-62.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS157.92%0.00%0.340.120.120.150.000.000.000.110.070.00
YoY Growth--183.21%0.48%-19.57%6,644.10%-26.06%17.08%-97.59%52.04%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.61%0.81%1.13%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)275.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.1134.4520.67
Cash Retained (M)147.99147.99147.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.11-34.45-20.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.88113.55127.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)407.77407.77407.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.11$7.63$9.36
Upside / Downside-78.98%-73.74%-67.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)275.57272.81270.08267.38264.71262.06269.92
Payout Ratio46.29%55.04%63.78%72.52%81.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.57150.14172.25193.90215.10235.85249.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)139.33140.75142.17
Year 2 PV (M)148.33151.37154.44
Year 3 PV (M)154.94159.73164.62
Year 4 PV (M)159.50166.11172.92
Year 5 PV (M)162.29170.74179.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,674.684,918.105,171.56
Equity Value (M)5,439.065,706.795,985.25
Shares Outstanding (M)407.77407.77407.77
Fair Value$13.34$14.00$14.68
Upside / Downside-54.08%-51.82%-49.47%

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