Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shinva Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (600587.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.20 - $60.69$33.16
Multi-Stage$13.92 - $15.22$14.56
Blended Fair Value$23.86
Current Price$16.03
Upside48.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.24%11.18%0.550.170.160.220.310.030.370.380.310.27
YoY Growth--216.98%7.06%-24.65%-29.79%902.10%-91.67%-3.88%23.93%14.10%41.71%
Dividend Yield--3.43%0.98%0.76%1.13%3.05%0.23%3.08%3.12%1.66%1.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)508.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)478.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.7863.6138.17
Cash Retained (M)478.78478.78478.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.78-63.61-38.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.99415.16440.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)596.16596.16596.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.20$33.16$60.69
Upside / Downside32.24%106.88%278.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)508.92542.00577.23614.75654.71697.26718.18
Payout Ratio5.92%22.74%39.55%56.37%73.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.14123.24228.31346.53479.14627.54664.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.90%8.90%8.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.11113.17114.23
Year 2 PV (M)188.93192.53196.16
Year 3 PV (M)260.84268.33275.96
Year 4 PV (M)328.08340.70353.68
Year 5 PV (M)390.88409.76429.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,014.837,353.657,705.44
Equity Value (M)8,295.678,678.139,074.82
Shares Outstanding (M)596.16596.16596.16
Fair Value$13.92$14.56$15.22
Upside / Downside-13.19%-9.19%-5.04%

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