Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo Yunsheng Co., Ltd. (600366.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.86 - $43.15$15.75
Multi-Stage$5.29 - $5.79$5.53
Blended Fair Value$10.64
Current Price$14.31
Upside-25.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.52%1.12%0.080.140.160.130.060.120.180.130.120.11
YoY Growth---43.35%-11.59%26.20%102.28%-47.09%-35.60%44.11%6.10%11.95%49.94%
Dividend Yield--0.97%2.15%1.65%1.13%0.90%1.82%2.64%1.36%1.12%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)261.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.3737.7322.64
Cash Retained (M)261.38261.38261.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.37-37.73-22.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)201.01223.65238.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,090.461,090.461,090.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.86$15.75$43.15
Upside / Downside-38.11%10.05%201.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.83321.45342.35364.60388.30413.54425.95
Payout Ratio13.40%28.72%44.04%59.36%74.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4692.33150.78216.43289.98372.18394.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.5885.3886.18
Year 2 PV (M)126.53128.94131.37
Year 3 PV (M)166.38171.15176.02
Year 4 PV (M)204.21212.06220.14
Year 5 PV (M)240.10251.69263.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,946.985,185.925,434.00
Equity Value (M)5,768.776,035.156,311.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,090.461,090.461,090.46
Fair Value$5.29$5.53$5.79
Upside / Downside-63.03%-61.32%-59.55%

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