Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gansu Dunhuang Seed Group Co.,Ltd. (600354.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.03 - $1.52$1.26
Multi-Stage$2.15 - $2.37$2.26
Blended Fair Value$1.76
Current Price$6.17
Upside-71.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.58%-17.31%0.030.140.040.040.080.090.130.110.120.15
YoY Growth---79.20%222.99%2.15%-45.81%-9.56%-31.97%9.95%-1.99%-23.82%-20.47%
Dividend Yield--0.52%2.39%0.61%0.66%1.96%2.61%2.62%1.53%1.49%2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.828.645.18
Cash Retained (M)60.7360.7360.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.82-8.64-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.9152.0955.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.87527.87527.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-2.83%-1.83%-0.83%
Fair Value$1.03$1.26$1.52
Upside / Downside-83.37%-79.56%-75.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.1267.8566.6265.4064.2163.0364.92
Payout Ratio12.13%27.70%43.28%58.85%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.3818.8028.8338.4947.7956.7360.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate-2.83%-1.83%-0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)17.3717.5517.73
Year 2 PV (M)24.6325.1425.65
Year 3 PV (M)30.3931.3432.30
Year 4 PV (M)34.8736.3337.83
Year 5 PV (M)38.2640.2742.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)989.141,041.101,095.21
Equity Value (M)1,134.661,191.721,251.09
Shares Outstanding (M)527.87527.87527.87
Fair Value$2.15$2.26$2.37
Upside / Downside-65.16%-63.41%-61.59%

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