Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Medicine Co., Ltd. (600216.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.11 - $68.82$41.91
Multi-Stage$24.96 - $27.37$26.15
Blended Fair Value$34.03
Current Price$14.17
Upside140.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.27%1.95%0.180.200.370.271.060.180.100.170.070.08
YoY Growth---11.26%-45.34%35.00%-74.15%498.96%71.32%-38.53%141.14%-16.40%-43.65%
Dividend Yield--1.33%2.16%2.98%1.75%7.53%0.94%0.93%1.10%0.59%0.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,244.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,227.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)248.80155.5093.30
Cash Retained (M)1,227.781,227.781,227.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-248.80-155.50-93.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)978.981,072.281,134.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.121.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Fair Value$28.11$41.91$68.82
Upside / Downside98.40%195.78%385.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,244.011,304.771,368.511,435.361,505.471,579.011,626.38
Payout Ratio1.30%19.04%36.78%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.23248.48503.37782.581,087.861,421.111,504.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)228.42230.62232.82
Year 2 PV (M)425.41433.64441.94
Year 3 PV (M)608.00625.72643.79
Year 4 PV (M)776.97807.32838.55
Year 5 PV (M)933.06978.851,026.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,832.7521,854.9322,916.84
Equity Value (M)23,804.6124,931.0726,100.36
Shares Outstanding (M)953.56953.56953.56
Fair Value$24.96$26.15$27.37
Upside / Downside76.17%84.51%93.16%

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