Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited (600064.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.50 - $19.34$15.68
Multi-Stage$27.80 - $30.64$29.19
Blended Fair Value$22.43
Current Price$8.06
Upside178.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.40%4.56%0.440.470.540.360.370.220.150.300.250.17
YoY Growth---6.68%-11.58%49.85%-2.19%69.21%46.10%-50.68%20.73%46.67%-40.21%
Dividend Yield--6.05%7.50%8.07%4.89%5.08%3.66%1.75%5.69%3.99%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,325.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,962.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.04290.65174.39
Cash Retained (M)1,962.501,962.501,962.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.04-290.65-174.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,497.461,671.851,788.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.50$15.68$19.34
Upside / Downside55.14%94.50%140.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,325.222,301.972,278.952,256.162,233.602,211.262,277.60
Payout Ratio15.60%30.48%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.72701.631,033.721,359.101,677.871,990.132,106.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)652.61659.27665.93
Year 2 PV (M)894.32912.67931.20
Year 3 PV (M)1,093.671,127.501,162.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,255.861,307.911,361.56
Year 5 PV (M)1,385.511,457.651,532.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,817.6445,047.2647,368.80
Equity Value (M)48,099.6150,512.2453,022.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
Fair Value$27.80$29.19$30.64
Upside / Downside244.88%262.18%280.18%

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