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Kingdom Holding Company (4280.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.17 - $26.52$15.47
Multi-Stage$12.41 - $13.60$12.99
Blended Fair Value$14.23
Current Price$7.70
Upside84.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.60%4.69%0.280.280.250.170.170.170.130.170.220.13
YoY Growth---0.01%10.07%43.71%0.01%-0.01%33.33%-25.00%-20.00%66.67%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--3.22%3.75%3.20%1.75%2.17%2.75%1.49%1.88%2.04%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,700.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,037.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)663.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.15212.59127.56
Cash Retained (M)663.18663.18663.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.15-212.59-127.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.03450.59535.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,762.823,762.823,762.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.69%3.69%4.69%
Fair Value$10.17$15.47$26.52
Upside / Downside32.11%100.94%244.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,700.741,763.541,828.661,896.181,966.192,038.792,099.96
Payout Ratio61.01%66.81%72.60%78.40%84.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,037.571,178.141,327.681,486.651,655.561,834.911,942.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.69%3.69%4.69%
Year 1 PV (M)1,097.181,107.871,118.55
Year 2 PV (M)1,151.491,174.021,196.78
Year 3 PV (M)1,200.771,236.191,272.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,245.311,294.531,345.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,285.381,349.201,415.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,705.9342,726.8444,827.23
Equity Value (M)46,686.0648,888.6551,175.58
Shares Outstanding (M)3,762.823,762.823,762.82
Fair Value$12.41$12.99$13.60
Upside / Downside61.13%68.73%76.63%

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