Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Chuangyitong Technology Co.,Ltd. (300991.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.09 - $33.68$31.56
Multi-Stage$5.32 - $5.82$5.57
Blended Fair Value$18.57
Current Price$40.00
Upside-53.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS71.95%150.21%0.150.020.230.010.010.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--700.86%-91.79%1,776.00%-5.51%29.05%361.95%128.06%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.79%0.13%1.56%0.07%0.04%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.093.181.91
Cash Retained (M)7.817.817.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.09-3.18-1.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.724.635.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.37150.37150.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.09$31.56$33.68
Upside / Downside-57.28%-21.09%-15.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.4727.1228.8830.7632.7634.8935.94
Payout Ratio69.32%73.46%77.59%81.73%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.6519.9222.4125.1428.1331.4033.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.5618.7418.91
Year 2 PV (M)19.4519.8220.19
Year 3 PV (M)20.3320.9121.50
Year 4 PV (M)21.1922.0022.84
Year 5 PV (M)22.0323.1024.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)699.04732.80767.85
Equity Value (M)800.59837.36875.51
Shares Outstanding (M)150.37150.37150.37
Fair Value$5.32$5.57$5.82
Upside / Downside-86.69%-86.08%-85.44%

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