Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changshu Tianyin Electromechanical Co.,Ltd (300342.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.83 - $3.28$2.44
Multi-Stage$10.32 - $11.42$10.86
Blended Fair Value$6.65
Current Price$17.90
Upside-62.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.98%-1.51%0.100.010.120.170.160.180.200.160.150.12
YoY Growth--1,726.53%-95.21%-30.74%3.03%-10.48%-7.72%22.95%4.09%30.43%-0.22%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.04%1.18%1.64%1.48%1.16%2.09%1.14%0.86%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.887.424.45
Cash Retained (M)31.4431.4431.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.88-7.42-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5624.0226.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)425.17425.17425.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate2.37%2.37%2.37%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Fair Value$1.83$2.44$3.28
Upside / Downside-89.75%-86.35%-81.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.4057.9156.4555.0453.6652.3153.88
Payout Ratio47.06%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9532.2336.2740.0843.6847.0849.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.37%2.37%2.37%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)31.1631.4831.80
Year 2 PV (M)33.9034.6135.32
Year 3 PV (M)36.2237.3638.52
Year 4 PV (M)38.1739.7841.43
Year 5 PV (M)39.7741.8844.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,210.454,433.194,665.27
Equity Value (M)4,389.674,618.304,856.42
Shares Outstanding (M)425.17425.17425.17
Fair Value$10.32$10.86$11.42
Upside / Downside-42.32%-39.32%-36.19%

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