Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

TSP Wind Power Group Co., Ltd Class A (300129.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.54 - $53.00$45.39
Multi-Stage$6.55 - $7.17$6.86
Blended Fair Value$26.12
Current Price$8.08
Upside223.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.32%13.07%0.070.060.070.080.080.060.060.050.040.04
YoY Growth--21.57%-14.67%-16.38%7.06%26.77%-2.74%20.71%32.02%10.93%68.72%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.74%0.76%1.16%1.08%1.41%1.31%0.88%0.48%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)233.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.8631.1618.70
Cash Retained (M)233.31233.31233.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.86-31.16-18.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)183.45202.15214.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)935.37935.37935.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.54$45.39$53.00
Upside / Downside79.94%461.79%555.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.29265.50282.75301.13320.71341.55351.80
Payout Ratio6.41%23.13%39.85%56.56%73.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.9961.41112.67170.34235.02307.40325.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.8357.3757.91
Year 2 PV (M)96.4998.32100.18
Year 3 PV (M)134.99138.86142.81
Year 4 PV (M)172.35178.98185.80
Year 5 PV (M)208.61218.69229.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,456.665,720.225,993.86
Equity Value (M)6,125.936,412.446,709.71
Shares Outstanding (M)935.37935.37935.37
Fair Value$6.55$6.86$7.17
Upside / Downside-18.95%-15.15%-11.22%

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