Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arabian Company for Agricultural and Industrial Investment (2287.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.58 - $16.44$13.29
Multi-Stage$24.60 - $27.09$25.82
Blended Fair Value$19.56
Current Price$40.10
Upside-51.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.734.212.52
Cash Retained (M)18.6518.6518.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.73-4.21-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9214.4416.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.480.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.58$13.29$16.44
Upside / Downside-73.61%-66.85%-58.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6533.3132.9832.6532.3232.0032.96
Payout Ratio44.58%53.66%62.75%71.83%80.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0017.8820.6923.4526.1528.8030.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6516.8216.99
Year 2 PV (M)17.9418.3118.68
Year 3 PV (M)18.9319.5220.12
Year 4 PV (M)19.6620.4821.32
Year 5 PV (M)20.1621.2122.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)644.79678.36713.32
Equity Value (M)738.13774.69812.73
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$24.60$25.82$27.09
Upside / Downside-38.64%-35.60%-32.44%

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