Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhongmiao (1471.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.95 - $4.39$3.63
Multi-Stage$5.56 - $6.11$5.83
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$13.83
Upside-65.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.036.273.76
Cash Retained (M)31.1531.1531.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.03-6.27-3.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1224.8827.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.95$3.63$4.39
Upside / Downside-78.68%-73.73%-68.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.1349.6349.1348.6448.1647.6849.11
Payout Ratio37.87%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9823.9728.8533.6438.3242.9145.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22.0422.2622.49
Year 2 PV (M)24.3924.8925.39
Year 3 PV (M)26.1326.9427.77
Year 4 PV (M)27.3728.5129.68
Year 5 PV (M)28.1829.6531.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)638.02671.24705.83
Equity Value (M)766.12803.48842.33
Shares Outstanding (M)137.76137.76137.76
Fair Value$5.56$5.83$6.11
Upside / Downside-59.79%-57.83%-55.79%

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