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NOV Inc. (0K58.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.75 - $12.55$10.61
Multi-Stage$14.05 - $15.45$14.73
Blended Fair Value$12.67
Current Price$15.51
Upside-18.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.52%-9.39%0.200.050.050.190.190.190.581.801.780.98
YoY Growth--290.00%5.26%-75.32%1.32%0.00%-66.96%-67.61%1.00%80.72%86.12%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.26%0.35%2.01%0.71%0.53%1.54%4.76%4.71%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)499.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)420.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.8062.3837.43
Cash Retained (M)420.00420.00420.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.80-62.38-37.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)320.20357.63382.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)395.50395.50395.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$8.75$10.61$12.55
Upside / Downside-43.58%-31.59%-19.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)499.00493.09487.25481.48475.78470.15484.25
Payout Ratio15.83%30.67%45.50%60.33%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.00151.21221.69290.49357.63423.13447.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)137.20138.60140.00
Year 2 PV (M)182.51186.26190.05
Year 3 PV (M)216.99223.71230.57
Year 4 PV (M)242.38252.44262.82
Year 5 PV (M)260.20273.77287.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,517.054,752.714,998.11
Equity Value (M)5,556.325,827.506,109.46
Shares Outstanding (M)395.50395.50395.50
Fair Value$14.05$14.73$15.45
Upside / Downside-9.42%-5.00%-0.40%

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