Definitive Analysis
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CSX Corporation (0HRJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.52 - $28.74$22.51
Multi-Stage$21.15 - $23.15$22.13
Blended Fair Value$22.32
Current Price$35.51
Upside-37.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%3.99%0.490.470.450.440.420.400.400.380.360.36
YoY Growth--5.44%3.52%1.55%5.27%4.46%1.60%6.07%4.12%-0.87%9.06%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.27%1.51%1.19%1.31%2.12%1.56%2.02%2.32%4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,881.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)960.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,921.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)576.20360.13216.08
Cash Retained (M)1,921.001,921.001,921.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-576.20-360.13-216.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,344.801,560.881,704.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.830.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.341.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$17.52$22.51$28.74
Upside / Downside-50.67%-36.60%-19.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,881.002,967.083,055.743,147.053,241.083,337.923,438.06
Payout Ratio33.32%44.66%55.99%67.33%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)960.001,325.021,711.002,118.872,549.573,004.133,180.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)1,202.731,214.531,226.32
Year 2 PV (M)1,409.751,437.531,465.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,584.681,631.751,679.74
Year 4 PV (M)1,730.811,799.701,870.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,851.171,943.732,039.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,136.3333,743.0235,413.35
Equity Value (M)39,915.4741,770.2643,695.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.251,887.251,887.25
Fair Value$21.15$22.13$23.15
Upside / Downside-40.44%-37.67%-34.80%

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