Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Celltrion Healthcare Co., Ltd. (091990.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,848.72 - $2,643.35$2,238.34
Multi-Stage$2,992.04 - $3,280.27$3,133.39
Blended Fair Value$2,685.86
Current Price$63,000.00
Upside-95.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS0.00%0.00%249.260.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43,133.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,164.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,969.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,626.685,391.683,235.01
Cash Retained (M)22,969.1222,969.1222,969.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,626.68-5,391.68-3,235.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)14,342.4417,577.4419,734.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.90159.90159.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share89.70109.93123.42
LTM Dividend per Share126.11126.11126.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share89.70109.93123.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend215.80236.03249.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1,848.72$2,238.34$2,643.35
Upside / Downside-97.07%-96.45%-95.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43,133.4242,702.0942,275.0741,852.3141,433.7941,019.4542,250.04
Payout Ratio46.75%55.40%64.05%72.70%81.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,164.3023,656.5027,076.8430,426.4133,706.2836,917.5139,081.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)21,397.6921,616.0421,834.38
Year 2 PV (M)22,152.9222,607.3323,066.35
Year 3 PV (M)22,516.4623,212.8023,923.35
Year 4 PV (M)22,561.9523,497.0424,460.90
Year 5 PV (M)22,351.9223,515.8324,727.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,446.36386,580.15406,502.83
Equity Value (M)478,427.31501,029.18524,515.54
Shares Outstanding (M)159.90159.90159.90
Fair Value$2,992.04$3,133.39$3,280.27
Upside / Downside-95.25%-95.03%-94.79%

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