Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $165,701.05 - $317,407.23 | $226,579.82 |
| Multi-Stage | $243,958.90 - $267,596.35 | $255,553.65 |
| Blended Fair Value | $241,066.73 | |
| Current Price | $133,600.00 | |
| Upside | 80.44% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.04% | 3.83% | 5,442.73 | 7,203.84 | 5,343.30 | 5,525.89 | 5,167.46 | 4,686.01 | 4,686.01 | 4,217.41 | 3,973.67 | 3,971.55 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -24.45% | 34.82% | -3.30% | 6.94% | 10.27% | 0.00% | 11.11% | 6.13% | 0.05% | 6.25% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.38% | 7.87% | 6.37% | 6.85% | 6.35% | 6.27% | 4.46% | 4.22% | 4.08% | 3.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,143,499.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 602,969.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 540,530.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 228,699.80 | 142,937.38 | 85,762.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 540,530.00 | 540,530.00 | 540,530.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -228,699.80 | -142,937.38 | -85,762.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 311,830.20 | 397,592.63 | 454,767.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.78 | 107.78 | 107.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2,893.20 | 3,688.91 | 4,219.39 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5,594.42 | 5,594.42 | 5,594.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2,893.20 | 3,688.91 | 4,219.39 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8,487.61 | 9,283.33 | 9,813.80 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | 6.75% |
| Growth Rate | 1.55% | 2.55% | 3.55% |
| Fair Value | $165,701.05 | $226,579.82 | $317,407.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 24.03% | 69.60% | 137.58% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,143,499.00 | 1,172,650.70 | 1,202,545.59 | 1,233,202.59 | 1,264,641.15 | 1,296,881.18 | 1,335,787.61 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.73% | 60.18% | 67.64% | 75.09% | 82.55% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 602,969.00 | 705,749.72 | 813,379.03 | 926,037.34 | 1,043,911.12 | 1,167,193.06 | 1,235,603.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.75% | 6.75% | 6.75% |
| Growth Rate | 1.55% | 2.55% | 3.55% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 654,671.16 | 661,117.99 | 667,564.82 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 699,903.17 | 713,755.54 | 727,743.64 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 739,172.81 | 761,225.41 | 783,712.32 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 772,953.74 | 803,852.86 | 835,669.25 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 801,687.61 | 841,945.52 | 883,804.73 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,625,623.80 | 23,761,802.60 | 24,943,173.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,294,012.29 | 27,543,699.92 | 28,841,668.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 107.78 | 107.78 | 107.78 |
| Fair Value | $243,958.90 | $255,553.65 | $267,596.35 |
| Upside / Downside | 82.60% | 91.28% | 100.30% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLYM | Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc. | 4.80% | $1.05 | 49.94% |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group, Inc. | 4.80% | $3.63 | 61.47% |
| CET | Central Securities Corp. | 4.79% | $2.43 | 13.87% |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity Group, LLC | 4.79% | $1.38 | 70.11% |
| JANIX | Janus Henderson Triton Fund Class D | 4.79% | $1.27 | 67.95% |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 4.77% | $1.21 | 75.90% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial, Inc. | 4.77% | $5.43 | 73.37% |
| IFAFX | The Income Fund of America, Class F-1 Shares | 4.76% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| AMECX | American Funds The Income Fund of America Class A | 4.74% | $1.24 | 33.91% |
| UMPQ | Umpqua Holdings Corporation | 4.74% | $0.84 | 54.13% |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp, Inc. | 4.73% | $0.54 | 54.01% |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares, Inc. | 4.72% | $1.44 | 62.24% |
| TNL | Travel + Leisure Co. | 4.72% | $3.40 | 54.99% |
| AIRC | Apartment Income REIT Corp. | 4.68% | $1.83 | 41.27% |
| SON | Sonoco Products Company | 4.68% | $2.08 | 32.95% |
| OFLX | Omega Flex, Inc. | 4.67% | $1.36 | 85.30% |
| FTAIO | FTAI Aviation Ltd. | 4.65% | $1.18 | 25.22% |
| WD | Walker & Dunlop, Inc. | 4.65% | $2.73 | 79.29% |
| 0J2Z.L | HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. | 4.63% | $1.47 | 66.70% |
| FLMN | Falcon Minerals Corporation | 4.63% | $0.36 | 81.83% |
| GSRM | GSR II Meteora Acquisition Corp. | 4.62% | $0.15 | 32.94% |
| FBFWX | American Funds Retirement Income Portfolio - Moderate Class F-1 | 4.61% | $0.63 | 79.77% |
| GPS | The Gap, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.93 | 41.48% |
| QUAD | Quad/Graphics, Inc. | 4.61% | $0.27 | 64.56% |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 4.59% | $2.45 | 82.81% |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation, Inc. | 4.56% | $0.99 | 52.39% |
| SCPL | SciPlay Corporation | 4.55% | $1.04 | 17.40% |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties, Inc. | 4.53% | $0.92 | 57.61% |
| RWAYL | Runway Growth Finance Corp. - 7 | 4.53% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | 4.52% | $2.12 | 48.43% |
| RWAYZ | Runway Growth Finance Corp. 8.00% Notes due 2027 | 4.52% | $1.14 | 75.51% |
| D | Dominion Energy, Inc. | 4.48% | $2.65 | 97.13% |
| TGT | Target Corporation | 4.48% | $4.50 | 54.48% |
| COLB | Columbia Banking System, Inc. | 4.47% | $1.26 | 62.95% |
| DFPAX | BNY Mellon Diversified International Fund Class A | 4.46% | $0.45 | 56.12% |
| KEY | KeyCorp | 4.46% | $0.94 | 95.81% |
| RPTIX | T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth Fund | 4.46% | $4.38 | 59.54% |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | 4.45% | $0.56 | 55.08% |
| NEWTP | NewtekOne, Inc. Depositary Shares, Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B | 4.44% | $1.02 | 44.14% |
| PFC | Premier Financial Corp. | 4.43% | $1.24 | 68.07% |
| BFC | Bank First Corporation | 4.40% | $5.30 | 73.82% |
| DUK | Duke Energy Corporation | 4.40% | $5.17 | 80.55% |
| 0L77.L | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 4.37% | $2.79 | 90.67% |
| ESCA | Escalade, Incorporated | 4.35% | $0.60 | 65.28% |
| DINO | HF Sinclair Corporation | 4.34% | $2.03 | 96.43% |
| LBAI | Lakeland Bancorp, Inc. | 4.34% | $0.58 | 44.96% |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | 4.32% | $6.74 | 95.36% |
| CVBF | CVB Financial Corp. | 4.31% | $0.81 | 54.32% |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 4.30% | $0.52 | 73.66% |
| EQR | Equity Residential | 4.28% | $2.66 | 89.76% |